海外之声｜世界黄金协会中央银行及公共政策部主管解读亚洲的黄金新形势

观点速递

本文作者是世界黄金协会中央银行及公共政策部主管Shaokai Fan，原文摘自国际货币金融机构官方论坛OMFIF Bulletin（2016年11月），OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。

作者提出，随着世界经济重心东移，亚洲在世界黄金市场的作用与日俱增。包括伊斯兰投资者和主权基金在内的新兴亚洲投资者群体开始改变对黄金的看法并将其作为避风港。

最后本文作者认为，央行对黄金的购买与摆脱单一美元，实现储备多样化有关，这对接纳人民币的亚洲央行尤为重要，亚洲央行的黄金持有量可能会上涨。 

中文译文如下：

亚洲的黄金新形势

作者：Shaokai Fan

翻译：张晴

审校：肖柏高

随着世界经济重心东移，亚洲在世界黄金市场的重要作用与日俱增。1970年，东亚和印度的黄金需求加起来占全球的35％；2015年，仅中国的市场需求就占到了全球的29％，印度占25％。

亚洲消费者腰包渐鼓，对珠宝和黄金的投资需求也随之增加。此外，官方部门对黄金的需求也大多来自亚洲，因为亚洲地区的央行正增加其储备并实现储备多样化。亚洲已经改变了全球的黄金需求格局，一旦有新的机遇出现，亚洲的作用会进一步强化。

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伊斯兰投资者

受非常规货币政策、政治不确定性和市场波动的影响，黄金得到全球投资者的青睐。然而，由于种种原因，一些投资者群体难以接触到作为金融投资品的黄金，伊斯兰投资者就是其中之一。由于黄金受制于伊斯兰特殊教规，而现有的投资指导也相对有限、不完善，他们几乎从未投资过黄金。

为解决这一问题，世界黄金协会和伊斯兰金融机构会计和审计组织（伊斯兰金融业全球标准制定者）正在制定伊斯兰教法的黄金投资标准，并在2016年底之前正式发布。该标准将为与黄金投资和单个投资产品合规性相关的伊斯兰教规提供明确的指导。

这对亚洲的黄金需求大有裨益。在伊斯兰金融业，马来西亚已经走在前列，富裕的中产阶级在寻求更好的投资选择。作为世界上最大的穆斯林国家，印度尼西亚也正着手推动伊斯兰金融业走向成熟，以便抓住新的投资机会。对寻求符合伊斯兰教法的投资产品和资产的亚洲投资者而言，通过实现黄金交易标准化，投资黄金会更容易。

主权基金试图在低利率环境下丰富其投资选择，而投资黄金就是一个重要的解决办法。金属的长期储备价值满足了主权基金对维持代际财富的强制要求。此外，由于主权基金在投资时更多地采取内部决策的方式，投资黄金的好处可以通过直接参与来体现。

亚洲的主权基金的资金来源主要是外汇储备或财政盈余，与资源型基金的投资方式不同。主权基金受石油价格下跌的影响较小，因而能更灵活地确定投资组合。而黄金的收益多样化，可成为有效投资组合中的一员。

不断变化的宏观趋势使中央银行越来越倾向于持有黄金。正在深化中央银行黄金持有的情况。由于实施非常规货币政策，近40％的发达国家主权债务呈现零收益或负收益，限制了中央银行的投资选择。亚洲的储备管理人员发现，要为该地区找到合适的储备资产比较困难。

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储备多样化

除去负利率政策的影响，中央银行黄金购买与摆脱单一美元、实现储备多样化息息相关。这一点在亚洲尤为重要，因为人民币国际化对亚洲的贸易和储备有着显著影响。

世界黄金协会的研究表明，人民币储备每增加一个百分点，中央银行应将黄金持有量增加0.5个百分点，以对冲其货币配置结构变动所引起的不确定性风险。随着亚洲央行接纳人民币，官方黄金持有量可能会上涨。

亚洲的繁荣发展可能会使黄金需求继续上涨。然而，随着投资者艰难应对持续的全球政治和金融不确定性，对黄金的看法也在转变。黄金的独特属性为包括伊斯兰投资者和主权基金等新兴亚洲投资者群体提供了避风港，亚洲中央银行有望继续转向黄金。

英文译文如下：

Gold's new frontiers in Asia

By Shaokai Fan

As the world’s centre of economic gravity shifts eastward, Asia’s importance to the world gold market continues to grow. While east Asia and India combined accounted for 35% of global demand in 1970, China alone accounted for 29% in 2015, and India 25%.

Asian consumers’ rising prosperity has increased demand for both jewellery and gold as an investment. Moreover, much official sector demand for gold is originating in Asia as regional central banks build and diversify their reserve holdings. Asia has transformed global gold demand, and new opportunities could strengthen the continent’s role further.

Islamic investors

Gold remains popular with global investors as a result of unconventional monetary policies, political uncertainty and market volatility. However, several investor groups, for differing reasons, have had limited contact with gold as an asset class. Islamic investors, who historically have had little exposure to gold investment, represent one such group. Gold is subject to special Islamic rules, while existing guidance is limited and fragmented.

To address this, the World Gold Council and the Accounting and Auditing Organisation of Islamic Financial Institutions, the global standard setter in Islamic finance, are developing a new Sharia (Islamic law) standard for gold, to be launched before the end of 2016. The standard will provide definitive guidance on Islamic rules pertaining to gold investment and the permissibility of individual products.

Asian gold demand could benefit significantly. Malaysia, already a vanguard in Islamic finance, has a prosperous middle class seeking greater investment options. Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim country, is beginning to promote Islamic finance, making it ripe for new investment opportunities. Standardising gold transactions will bolster gold’s accessibility to Asian investors seeking Sharia-compliant products and asset classes.

Gold can offer sovereign funds an important solution as they seek to diversify their investments in a low rate environment. The metal’s role as a long-term store of value complements sovereign funds’ mandate to sustain intergenerational wealth. There is also an opportunity to present gold’s benefits through direct engagement, as sovereign funds are increasingly making their investment decisions internally.

Asia’s sovereign funds are largely funded through foreign exchange reserves or fiscal surpluses, and require a different investment approach to resource-based funds. They have been less affected by the decline in oil prices, giving them more flexibility to determine their investment mix. Gold can be a useful portfolio component because of its diversification benefits.

Changing macro trends are deepening the case for gold holdings by central banks. Unconventional monetary policies have rendered almost 40% of developed country sovereign debt either zero- or negative-yielding, limiting central bank investment options. Asia’s reserve managers are finding it difficult to find suitable assets for the region’s reserve stockpiles.

Reserve diversification

Aside from the impact of negative interest rate policies, central bank gold-buying goes hand-in-hand with reserve diversification away from the dollar. This is particularly relevant in Asia, where the renminbi’s internationalisation has had a pronounced impact on trade and reserves.

Research by the World Gold Council indicates that, for every one percentage point increase in renminbi reserve holdings, central banks should increase their gold holdings by 0.5 percentage points, to hedge their portfolios against uncertainty stemming from structural changes in currency allocations. As Asian central banks embrace the renminbi, official gold holdings are likely to increase.

Demand for gold is likely to continue to rise as Asia becomes more prosperous. However, the narrative for gold is shifting too, as investors contend with continuing global political and financial uncertainty. Gold’s unique qualities offer a safe haven for new Asian investor groups such as Islamic investors and sovereign funds, while Asian central banks can be expected to continue to turn to gold.

Shaokai Fan is Director, Central Banks and Public Policy, at the World Gold Council. 

观点整理  张晨希

图文编辑  张晨希

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